Katherine Noyes from PCWorld believes that tablets are just a fad- “Apple is nothing if not master of the glitzy sales pitch, and there’s never been better proof of that than the iPad’s current success.
Mark my words: The device–and all the others of its ilk that have sprung up for a piece of the action–are nothing more than a passing fad, at least in the mainstream. Here’s why…”
John Gruber of course does not agree with Katherine and uses only two words to emphasis his opinion- “Words marked.”
I agree with Katherine. I see no point in the future where the tablet form will be as popular as it is today, unless some remarkably good data input solution is created and they end up as bloated as desktop software is today to give us the functionality we all need.
Tablets fulfil a specific niche, and the people who said they would replace laptops and be a universal device are just as wrong as those who say they’re pointless.
Imagine two completely different lifestyles, one clearly benefits from the tablet form, the other is questionable.
1/ someone who commutes into London
they walk from home to the station, take the train to london, and then tube to near their office
For this lifestyle, a smartphone and tablet are great. Most of the time the person is sitting down, and mainly “consuming” news and media (video, audio). They want something convenient to carry for the short walks, and it needs to small enough to use on the train.
A tablet’s lack of keyboard would be a significant advantage in reducing weight, and its long battery life an advantage.
2/ a travelling sales person
sales person drives from home to client, from client to client, and then home.
For this person, a basic or “feature” phone and a laptop are probably ideal. They don’t have to walk far carrying their laptop. If they’re busy driving they shouldn’t be using phone or laptop! If they’re busy with customer they may need to connect laptop to projector, and/or access a range of files etc.
They may also use a cafe and get out their laptop and tether to a 3G dongle to write up a report and send and receive emails, schedule meetings with calendaring.
A tablet’s lack of keyboard would be a significant disadvantage. The relative poor battery life of a laptop is not a big problem as this person would be able to use a car power adaptor, or a mains plug at client’s site or cafe.
It’s nice to see that people can still make statements where they might be proved brilliantly wrong. While she may be right, it may take a long, long time.
One could say that tube TVs were a passing fad because of the popularity of LCD TVs now. Is that really a passing fad? How many years does a product have to be popular before it’s not a passing fad?
I expect that the iPad and tablets will have at least a 10 year popularity run and then become simply ubiquitous. They are making what we call computing accessible to the average consumer. And with the advent of cloud services, it will be easier to use.
I see the next step as being able to use a tablet without having to worry about a home computer at all. Simpler set up for internet access. Automatic backup and sync to the cloud, etc. It’s almost here now but it’s not simple enough.
Bob
“It’s nice to see that people can still make statements where they might be proved brilliantly wrong.”
It’s difficult because no matter what people think now, we obviously cannot see the future. John Gruber believes for certain that tablets are here to stay, I am certain they are not.
However, we can never be certain. My judgement is that they won’t be around in large numbers in 5 years time.
Judging by the queue for the iPad 2 I doubt it. Lucky I’m number 2 in the queue